Will Obama suffer from the
By Jason Carroll
(CNN) Oct 14, 2008. Sen. Barack Hussein Obama has a sizable lead over
Sen. John McCain, polls show, but those numbers could be deceiving if
the "Bradley effect" comes into play.
Polls show that Sen. Barack Obama has a sizable lead over Sen. John
The Bradley effect is named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley,
an African-American who ran for California governor in 1982. Exit polls
showed Bradley leading by a wide margin, and the Democrat thought it
would be an early election night.
But Bradley and the polls were wrong. He lost to Republican George
The theory was that polling was wrong because some voters, who did not
want to appear bigoted, said they voted for Bradley even though they did
"People will usually tell you how they voted after the election, but we
found in the Bradley campaign ... that people were actually not telling
us who they voted for," said Charles Henry, who researched Bradley's
The Bradley effect is also called the "Wilder effect," after Douglas
Wilder, Virginia's former governor. He won by just one-tenth of a
percent, but as he pointed out to CNN, "people forget -- in the exit
polls, I was still double-digits ahead." Watch how the Bradley effect
could affect the polls »
According to CNN's latest poll of polls, Obama is leading McCain by 8
percentage points, 50 to 42.
Some analysts say the race could be much closer or even tied if the
Bradley effect is factored in. iReport.com: iReporter pleads with voters
to 'stop the racism'
"It leaves a question mark over this race, and we won't have the final
answer until the votes are counted," said David Gergen, a senior
political analyst for CNN.
But there could be an opposite effect, Wilder said. "There's going to be
a reverse Wilder or Bradley effect. ... There are some Republicans who
are not going to say out front that they're going to be voting for
Obama, but they're going to be, because the economy is what's driving
people to consider what's in their best interest," he said.
Some analysts say the Bradley effect can account for 6 percentage points
against an African-American candidate.
Michelle Obama told CNN's Larry King that a lot has changed since
"That was several decades ago, and I think there's been growth and
movement," she said. "I just believe that the issues are going to weigh
in people's hearts more so as they go into the voting booths this time
Former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown said last week that he thinks
the Bradley effect could cost Obama several battleground states -- and
possibly the presidency.
Race "is still a problem in this country," Brown told CNN. "It goes away
when there are other troubles that are more challenging, and right now,
whether or not we survive in the economy is more challenging. But race
could rear its ugly head. I just hope it doesn't before November 4."
In the past 15 years or so, there's been no indication in the polls that
the Bradley effect has been a factor in statewide races.
Bill Schneider, CNN's senior political analyst, said that if there is
racism in this year's election, it's probably already showing up in the
polls. And Keating Holland, CNN's polling director, pointed out another
"We've never had a black presidential candidate as a major nominee, so
the polls don't have any history at all when it comes to national
elections," he said.